Not the half-dozen or so public polls that are available, that’s for sure. Polling in TN is usually considerably less accurate than national or swing state polls. So, I’m just guessing that Trump isn’t here because he enjoys the scenery.
Given that he’s campaigning in Clarksville, a small town that due to our absurdly gerrymandered districts shares congressional representation with Memphis and Nashville, I think it’s probably more about limiting the impact of the midterms on the House than it is about the statewide races. But the fact that he has to shore up support in the districts Republicans hand-crafted to be safe is significant.
But between xAI, ICE, and (sigh…) gas prices, a lot of “independents” in TN are souring on Trump. The difference between trump at a 40% approval and 30% approval has a disproportionate impact in states like TN. The state is red, but it isn’t as solidly red as it appears.
Green can win. It may be she won’t, but she can. She sure as shit wouldn’t have a chance if everyone were as pessimistic as you are.

Howdy neighbor. I have lived in TN for about double that. I don’t agree with your assessment, and good for me, because if I did I would be disinclined to even try and change things. I hope we can get better governance in both our states.