This is not a SFW instance. NSFW communities will be tagged, and efforts will be made to keep SFW communities clean, but proceed at your own comfort level.
it’s genuinely a better predictive model than what a statistician would be able to come up with
OK, let’s see the evidence for that assertion.
Simply by knowing the price of a contract, I can know with decent accuracy how likely something is to happen.
A retrospective analysis of the contract prices versus actual outcomes would also be needed. Otherwise, all you’re seeing is an opinion poll conducted on a self-selected sample of people unusually prone to being greedheads. And you have no idea of the mechanisms that shape that market.
OK, let’s see the evidence for that assertion.
A retrospective analysis of the contract prices versus actual outcomes would also be needed. Otherwise, all you’re seeing is an opinion poll conducted on a self-selected sample of people unusually prone to being greedheads. And you have no idea of the mechanisms that shape that market.